MINNEAPOLIS — John Middleton got up from his seat in the front row behind the visitor’s dugout at Wrigley Field when a Phillies fan approached.
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“You’ve got to believe!” the fan said.
“Listen, I believe,” the owner replied. “But we’ve got to play better.”
Middleton retells the story every so often because he knows now that it has a happy ending. But nobody foresaw a World Series run in the Phillies’ future on Sept. 29, 2022. Not after a sweep by the Cubs left them clutching a half-game lead for the last National League wild card with six games remaining.
So if you’re down on the Phillies now, think about how you felt then. They hadn’t been to the postseason in a decade, a drought that weighed heavy and negated all benefit of the doubt. Things seemed bleak.
Four years later, they’ve been through some stuff. And because the guts of the roster hasn’t changed, Kyle Schwarber believes they can lean on those experiences to guide them through the season’s final six weeks.
But the Phillies also entered the weekend here against the Twins with four losses in seven games. They were 11-15 since the All-Star break, a skid that took them from two games behind the division-leading Braves to a tie with the Diamondbacks for the last NL wild card.
Everything feels like it’s headed in the wrong direction.
And for the first time since 2022, it might come down to the final week of the regular season.
“I think we know what’s at stake,” Schwarber said. “We all know the writing on the wall. We know that, for where we need to go, that we need to step up in a lot of different ways, in a lot of different areas. And I feel like our team is ready for that.”
Ready or not, here they are.
This week brought something different, a 10-hour detour to Iowa cornfields for a glimpse of the Field of Dreams movie site and a 7-1 victory over the Twins. It was a breath of fresh air, an 80-mph changeup amid a slew of triple-digit fastballs.
But now, it’s a 39-game sprint to the finish. The Phillies started 9-19 and got their manager fired. They went on a 45-24 heater under Don Mattingly to climb back into the race. And the latest stumble has them in a five-team cluster for two wild-card spots.
The Braves, Brewers, and Dodgers lead the NL East, Central, and West, respectively. The Cubs are comfortably atop the wild-card standings, with a seven-game lead through Friday.
Behind them, the Padres are surging. The Phillies are trying to ward off challenges from the Diamondbacks, Marlins and Cardinals. It didn’t help that they lost two of three in St. Louis this week.
Entering the weekend, the Phillies had an 87.9% chance to make the playoffs, based on Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projection model. Baseball Reference had them at 61.2%. Fangraphs split the difference, at 73.9%. A good week at home in back-to-back series against the Marlins and Cardinals would go a long way to boosting those odds.
“We know the road ahead that we’re going to have, and we know that everyone’s going to be pulling on that same rope every single day and trying to find different ways to execute and win ballgames,” Schwarber said. “It doesn’t have to be one area every single day. I feel like that all different areas are going to be coming together at a really good time.”
Said Bryson Stott: “We know we have to win games, especially now and coming down the stretch. We’re in a tight race right now.”
It feels like the right time, then, to look closer at the race for the last two wild-card spots. Let’s dive in, with all numbers through Friday’s games.
Padres
Record: 66-57, second place in NL West, second in wild card (one-game lead).
Strength of remaining schedule: .496
Playoff odds: 59% Fangraphs; 58% Baseball Prospectus; 51.1% Baseball Reference.
Key series: Sept. 25-27 vs. the Diamondbacks.
The big question: Will A.J. Preller’s go-for-it trade deadline spur San Diego’s third consecutive playoff berth and fourth in five years?
Ten days before the deadline, officials from multiple teams were still guessing about Preller’s approach. But the Padres went 8-1 against the Marlins, Rockies, and Giants, and allowed Preller to be Preller. Not only did the hyperaggressive executive hold star closer Mason Miller and reliever Adrián Morejón, but he sacrificed two of the organization’s top four prospects for rental starters Robbie Ray and Casey Mize, who joined Michael King and soon-to-return Joe Musgrove in an experienced rotation. The Padres came into the weekend having won six games in a row and 16 of 20.
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Outlook: Remember the team that went 0-6 in a span of 11 days against the Phillies in late May and early June? Well, these aren’t your father’s Padres. For one thing, their stars have shined. Entering the weekend, Fernando Tatis Jr. had seven homers and a 1.002 OPS since the All-Star break; Jackson Merrill was batting .343 with a 1.032 OPS. Imagine if Manny Machado ever figures it out this season.
Phillies
Record: 65-58, second place in NL East, tied for third in wild card.
Strength of remaining schedule: .506
Playoff odds: 73.9% Fangraphs; 87.9% Baseball Prospectus; 61.2% Baseball Reference.
Key series: Aug. 31-Sept. 2, at Diamondbacks.
The big question: Will they run out of major league-quality pitching?
In the playoffs, with short series and frequent days off, the Phillies are a dangerous opponent because of their Three Aces — Cristopher Sánchez, Zack Wheeler, and Jesús Luzardo — and stud closer Jhoan Duran. That’s enough pitching to scare even the Dodgers. But it takes a stockpile of arms to make the playoffs. Dave Dombrowski came up empty at the deadline for a starter (from among a bountiful supply of available starters) and a setup reliever. And so, it’s hardly catastrophizing to wonder if Mattingly has enough trustworthy pitching at his disposal to navigate the next six weeks.
Outlook: At various times, Bryce Harper has used four words that may as well serve as the Phillies’ rallying cry: “Just get us in.” Never mind the divisional-round disappointments of the last two Octobers. The Phillies are actually built for the postseason, with a Jenga-tower roster that’s top heavy with stars. But getting there requires layers of depth on the roster and in the farm system. One injury, especially in the pitching ranks, could cause the whole thing to unravel. Keep an eye, too, on Harper and Schwarber, who have dealt with a sore knee and lower back, respectively.
Diamondbacks
Record: 65-58, third place in NL West, tied for third in the wild card.
Strength of remaining schedule: .501
Playoff odds: 42.4% Fangraphs; 33.6% Baseball Prospectus; 44.4% Baseball Reference
Key series: Aug. 31-Sept. 2 vs. the Phillies
The big question: Did they miss an opportunity at the trade deadline?
The Diamondbacks were close to adding righty Clay Holmes to their rotation, but the Mets reportedly backed out over health concerns about one of the prospects in the deal. Arizona’s lone deadline move was for lefty-hitting outfielder Lars Nootbaar, and general manager Mike Hazen didn’t hide his frustration. “In the end, I could have kept adding,” he said in a radio interview. “I could have kept putting more in to get the deals done and it just didn’t happen.”
Outlook: Unless these Phillies finally win it all, they will be haunted by the 2023 NL Championship Series, when they lost Game 6 and 7 at home. Three years later, the Diamondbacks present many of the same challenges, notably a pesky offense led by Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, Ketel Marte, and Gabriel Moreno. They added Nolan Arenado this year, and he’s pushing 20 homers. But the lineup may have to carry them given the rotation depth behind Eduardo Rodríguez. Rookie lefty Brandyn Garcia recently took over as closer and has been dominant.
Marlins
Record: 62-61, third place in the NL East, fifth in wild card (three games back)
Strength of remaining schedule: .510
Playoff odds: 11.4% Fangraphs; 10.8% Baseball Prospectus; 17.1% Baseball Reference.
Key series: Sept. 14-16 at Diamondbacks
The big question: Can they reel off another hot streak?
Since June 17, the Marlins won 16 of 20 games, lost 12 in a row, won six out of seven, lost four straight, and won four straight before losing Thursday and Friday. If they were an amusement park ride, they would leave their patrons nauseous. It’s probably the sign of a young team that’s not quite ready for primetime. And the competition will harden, especially in September. The Marlins’ last 15 games are against the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Padres, Cubs, and Braves. How’s that for a gauntlet?
Outlook: The 12-game losing streak turned the Marlins from potential deadline buyers to fence-sitters who leaned toward selling. If they get on a roll, it will be because of the starting pitching, led by Sandy Alcantara and Eury Pérez. Max Meyer, an All-Star and emerging ace, has been sidelined with a neck strain since July 19. It’s unclear whether he will return before the end of the season. The Marlins traded catcher Liam Hicks to the Rays but held on to Otto Lopez and Xavier Edwards, the most underrated middle infield in the sport.
Cardinals
Record: 61-61, third place in the NL Central, sixth in wild card (3½ games back)
Strength of remaining schedule: .499
Playoff odds: 8.6% Fangraphs; 4.2% Baseball Prospectus; 15.8% Baseball Reference.
Key series: Aug. 21-23 at Phillies
The big question: Can an accidental contender keep contending?
Not only didn’t the Cardinals plan on contending this season, but at the trade deadline, president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom acted as if they weren’t. In addition to sending Nootbaar to the Diamondbacks, Bloom packaged starter Dustin May and reliever JoJo Romero to the rival Brewers for prospects. Yet the Cardinals won three series in a row since the deadline, taking two of three from the Yankees, Rockies, and Phillies. If they’re still in the race after next weekend’s series in Philadelphia, maybe they will actually have staying power in September.
Outlook: The Cardinals have balance in the top half of the lineup, with rookie sensation JJ Wetherholt and Alec Burleson from the left side of the plate and Home Run Derby champ Jordan Walker and Iván Herrera from the right. And they’re calling up outfield prospect Joshua Báez, who is bringing 34 homers from triple A to the majors this weekend. But an unexpected strength has been the young starting pitchers, chiefly Andre Pallante, Kyle Leahy, and Michael McGreevy. Never heard of them? If the Cardinals are able to hang in there, they will be big reasons why.
Tony Gwynn Jr. is a former major league outfielder and son of late Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn. Over the last two years, he got to know new Phillies second baseman Luis Arraez, whose contact skills at the plate often draw comparisons to Gwynn. Tony Jr. joined Phillies Extra to discuss his father, Arraez, and the bonds that connect them. Watch here.
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Previous episodes: Kevin Stocker | Bobby Dickerson | Jim Bowden | John Middleton | Ryan Howard | Dan Baker | Ricky Bottalico | Preston Mattingly | Caleb Cotham | Larry Bowa
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